London, 2 April 2019 - It’s not easy to British MPs to find a point of convergence: both customs union and second referendum have been rejected, albeit by a slight majority of noes. May is set to ask a short extension, but this will be not endorsed by MPs. 


Why? The answer is simple:
 

1) Because loyal to May Conservatives are blackmailing everybody to push PM’s deal using well grounded fears of no-deal and consequent chaos. As a confirmation of Tory’s strategy to stay in power, over these hours the Cabinet is trying to avert a breakdown in the majority by anticipating a Labour possible no confidence vote by calling snap elections.

2) Because hard Brexiteers promoting far right views have interest in a hard Brexit or no deal in order to take control of a economically devastated and politically weakened country.

3) Because Labour party wants to go to general elections as soon as possible and before a second referendum to get a majority government able to represent also those who voted leave. 

Meanwhile May states she is going to seek cross party solution and a short extension, a second vote at the House of Commons is scheduled Wednesday 3rd April when MPs will try to get a majority on, at least, one of the motions to go forward and indicate to the EU the basis to ask a long extension to Article 50.


Two main points highlight a danger to British democracy:


1) Tories possible call for a second snap election brings forward a political game of power destroying both the economy and the natural democratic political alternance of the British two-party system.


2) After ten years of Tory government, Labour Party is pushing to new general election; its policy is for a second referendum in case Parliament would not support Labour proposed customs union deal. But, based on Corbyn’s statements, it looks like a second vote would be subject to general elections, first. On Monday 40 rebel Labour MPs either voted against or abstained on second referendum (now rebranded ‘public vote’or ‘confirmatory vote’) included a chief frontbencher who defied the party’s three line whip obliging MPs to vote in favour, now Corbyn’s wants to sack him and this is a sign of how important to Corbyn the chance of a second referendum is: initially reluctant to embrace the People’s vote, now the left leadership understood that the public vote can be a general election war horse to ride while both harvesting leavers’ and remainers’ votes and so, as Corbyn said, finally “reunite the country”.

Labour could call a new no confidence vote after a motion is passed and then go on with a general election campaign focused on a public choice between custom unions or remain on a ballot paper, where “Labour will campaign for a customs union”, Corbyn said.

But how to determine new general election?


Choices are:


1) One of the motions is passed, then second no-confidence vote, if winner, extension to Art50 with justification of new elections.
 

2) Labour customs union proposal is passed. Extension Art 50 and then new negotiations with Brussels led by Labour. At that point there would be a shift of the executive.


3) Motion for a second referendum is passed. Extension to Art 50 then referendum; in case remain wins this would lead to new elections as Conservatives’ commitment to delivering on leavers’ majority will not represent at that point the new awareness based will of the country. In this case, the winner of general election, whether Labour or Tories will have to trace a clear boundary between democracy and far right anti-European, anti-social, racist and deviating stances: a very difficult job for the Tories whose politics are ingrained into these stances; easier job for Labour, who anyway will have to come to terms with their own ‘red Bretiteers’.
 

Labour Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer announcing the party's intention of vote on the four amendments (then all rejected) on Monday 1st April 2019.

Towards a long extension despite May's request. General elections creeping behind both parties' strategies

Copyright © TalkEurope.org 2019 

Copyright © TalkEurope.org 2019 

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